Thursday 30 April 2020

lockdown #57

Yes, its time for the BEANS!

#57 is all about when society realises that funny is more important than money.

As the Clash famously sang.......rebellion....money....

Being in lockdown, we've all had the chance to look in the mirror, not in a 1982, Dollar, Mirror Mirror way, but in a '....my budget is 50% alcohol and 50% food....' way.

So how will Covid-19 affect the economy. There's all this debt mountain doom but in every crisis there's winners and losers.

Pubs are going to be hit harder than ever and the economic meltdown that ensues will be where fixed costs are high, inevitably the high street. If your fixed cost based is largely property, its a sore one.

Online retailers have been inching towards success but Covid-19 has been the virus to end all computer viruses as online shopping takes a quantum leap. Online retailers are huge winners. The over 40's have learnt just how much can be bought online.

I'll write up somewhere else the terror of the 2nd peak after the first lockdown loosens its grip, but this will become the scariest time for care health workers as the great unwashed (us) start to socialise and spread the virus. June and July will take the current care home cull to new and terrifying levels, but this is an economic post, although I am going on for longer than usual.

Care homes, like other building centric businesses, eg hotels, I view as infrastructure businesses. Golf Clubs have buildings that they could easily sell and fund their golf courses, if members were happy to operate out of the boot of their car, but club members largely choose not do to so. They aspire to have changing facilities, bars and restaurants. What Golf Clubs know is that there is a lot of infrastructure costs associated with buildings. In this crisis its quite ironic that the costs, of running a loss making building, decline, so it actually makes the golf club more profitable that it doesn't have to staff the building. The variable costs (staff & stock) are rarely covered by the variable income (sales). There may still be costs associated with insurance, utilities but there's no cleaning, no bar staff and no phones needing answered. For a Golf Club, compared to a Waterstones or a Wetherspoons, therefore closing the doors is a good thing. This is because the club own the clubhouse and in the high street retail world properties are often rented, leased or have mortgages. If they are owned then there must be a suitable return on capital to cover the mortgage or the business would just sell the property.

The banks in the UK, from 1987 onwards, decided that they could get huge prices for asset stripping, so they closed branches and sold the properties to pub groups like Wetherspoons, amongst others to make a turn from them by running them as pubs.

Pub groups rely on turnover to generate the profit to pay the mortgage. Ha Ha, I hear you laugh, some names we'll be glad to see leave our High Streets, but sadly they wont be alone. Volume businesses like Greggs should be fine because their floorspace generates much more revenue than say a Waterstones or WH Smiths. Good news for the independent book sellers whose passion so often goes unrewarded. They will prosper in the post lockdown world, if they can get through the hard months ahead.

Shop fitters will be in decline as I just cant see who will fill the retail space, except tesco metro and other pop up supermarket stores who can max out the low rents that'll have to be offered. All of this leads me full circle to what I wanted to discuss, REITs.

Real Estate Investment Trusts have been a great funding vehicle for capital projects, unfortunately though there will be a lot of bad investments about as smart REITs "sell on" big shopping complexes at what appears to be a huge discount. They'll be largely given away, or at least that's what the buying REITs will feel. These parcels though will be potentially toxic so REIT buyers beware.

I'm looking at Care Homes too. An independent care home owner told me recently how they had managed to keep occupancy at 93% and as such had paid off the building costs in a little over 9 years. A truly rags to riches story of taking a £1m mortgage and then selling the business debt free 10 years on for £2m.

Now take the current owner, who has just seen occupancy fall to 75% and is still trying to service the £2m debt they took on for buying it. The Care Home cull I described 2 weeks ago is going to massively affect them. Occupancy rates could fall to 20% if Covid-19 wreaks havoc on the home. That effectively puts the new owner into administration because all care homes are likely to have low occupancy and new residents will be at a trickle.

The care home sector is therefore doubly battered. First they have to cope with the trauma of the virus and then many of the staff will fall victim to redundancy.

I'm really angry that this stuff is just not getting exposure as smarter people could start working on a transformation.

There needs to be a lot of help put into the care sector, I'm not suggesting it needs nationalised but we do need a national plan. Care should not be left to financial markets to decide the future of its industry.

Airlines are clearly starting to act because they know that the mortgage on their planes is huge.

Back to these big asset companies my next tip for tough times is copy shops.

Photocopy shops survive on copying. If they dont then the copier leases cant be paid. If you want posters made up for a party, a gig, you use them. If there's no public gatherings, demand for these one off ventures dries up. In Edinburgh if there's no Edinburgh festival, no flyers, ouch!

This leads nicely to the impact on the economy by region. Hotels, Air BnB throughout the and have been hammered, Edinburgh hotels in particular are going to see occupancy plummet as the cancellation of the festival rps through the city. Some of these seasonal jobs are taken by the visitors to the city so the citizens of Edinburgh may not feel it as much, but those kids who move home to rent their flat, or those businesses who rely on exhorbitant August rentals to cover the mortgage for the rest of the year will find their business model under pressure.

This all leads me back to what industries will win. Drugs will win. Drugs are a safe home when there is carnage all about. Drug companies are dipping their toe into the online home delivery. These are regular sales so breaking into this space will see pharmacists doing very well. Like opticians with the online delivery of lenses, if the over 60's start to receive all their medication to their door, they will be very loyal customers for years.

Consumable products and the grey pound make for a very good business case. Remember its not just the odd aspirin, nowadays we have drugs for many an ailment.

To be continued

lockdown benefit #27

Yes, I'm up to #27, and its the social media spring clean!

Who to listen to and more importantly who to finally stop listening to.

Self censorship has seen millions of us finally take ownership of our devices and learn how to mute people, how to un-follow those that we 'only followed because...' and generally find time in our life for the things in our life we want to find time for.


Sometimes that's fresh air, not oxygen, but the epiphany of the moment that you enjoy reading, writing, singing, playing drums, touching your toes, chipping a golf ball in your hall. or plan your next camino.

So many of us who were under pressure, largely all related to that concept time, have like Salvador Dali, seen it melt right before their eyes. Each of Dali's timepieces is another part of your life and as you get mesmerised by each one, you feel the hypnotic power transform you.

When you come too you've got a dozen friends and colleagues, none of whom put ridiculous demands on you!

Job done...



I used to love smoking, 50g of tobacco some days, and in the end I had to stop, which I did cold turkey using the mantra, "I'll not be told by the tobacco companies when to have my next rollie, I will have one, when I want one."

Its one of the few times when I felt I exercised choice as opposed to having been guided 'Devs' like down a pre-ordained path. I often thought I was choosing, but most of the time it was not a real choice. When I've had a real choice like writing the diaries of Prof Hackenabush, or the story of the Car Turner, I usually get lost in the dream of the story and cant write it down. I close my eyes and have a good dream. I love the stories and prefer just to tell them when I walk the camino.

It's when the characters come alive, where  Jose Archer lives. She's probably not even aware of the lockdown as there's no lockdown in your imagination. The world according to Jose is liberated, and her story the Egg Hatcher, is quite prophetic of this current scenario, especially as she wrote her book more than 50 years ago.

I had a boss who said dont do tomorrow what you can finish today, which unfortunately I can only do in a work context, preferring the standard approach of manana...

I must get in touch with Josephine.....soon!

Wednesday 29 April 2020

On your Own - Life support

1985 recording - with thanks to Gordon Tucker - just failing to upload!!

Yep - shit for brains here, I'll do them as videos instead, May 21 is the target date, yes, May 2021....here's the first one, inspired by watching Normal People the other day


I was very impressed with Normal People, took me back to the 1980's, the band being a student. I think I was more Marianne when I arrived at Uni, but quickly identified with the fella, until he started passing exams....anyway Mark wrote the song and he was always trying to get Nikki on his own! Today Mark with the kids grown up and the grand children arriving, you've finally got her on your own!


Virus-free. www.avg.com

Monday 27 April 2020

On this day

April 28

1974 - wrote a letter to my nana and auntie Helen about auntie Mamie dying

1979 - went to Joyce Francoise party and then to the Cubs concert at the Pollock halls with Dirty Reds (aka fire engines) 

April 29

1978 - Too wet for golf again. Worked in Brydons and took a large number of sweets home with me

1979 - 2am, help Gordon take the Cubs gear home

April 30

1978 Graham Mavor and I talked with Davie Nicol. Went to Hibs v Celtic, Paddy Stanton testimonial. We won 2-1. Donnie was recovering from being hit by a brick at yesterday's game v Aberdeen, he had a few stitches.

1979 - sat English higher, difficult, think I've passed. Stu started at WM.

May 1

1978 - played golf with D Nicol (9 handicap)

1979 - did some maths revision. After 4 hours work went to Queen's Arms. Did some revision when I got home, O'grade tomorrow.

May 2

1978 did paper round then Mum drove me to Holyrood. Lucy got day off for by-elections and went to Asda with Mum. I played golf with Graham and Dee Dee.

1980

I got up and sat maths higher. An exam of two papers. I - 85% II - 55% as I went up to Boroughmuir to meet the guys for drinks. Had 8 Guinness, a Cointreau and a whisky, but who's counting!

May 3

1974

I got up and went to school. We went to the JFK center for a concert.i took some photographs. After we got back we had lunch.

1979

It was the general election and I voted using Gordon's vote. I went to work as usual after a difficult french O'grade.

1980

I got up and went to junior golf coaching. I played golf and started back home 4433, -1! In the evening I went to Alan Reid's house and watched TV.

Wednesday 22 April 2020

Its Society, but not as we know it

We've been promised a new society by politicians for all my voting days and beyond, but Covid-19 has presented us with no option.

It has no slogan but it literally is change behaviour or people die. Every time I say that I hear Jim Carroll's song, re-titled as the Care home cull. What astonishes me is we haven't mandated contact and traceability in a care home.

I'll come onto Education,music, theatre and sport like football later, but our society is transforming.

The first thing in any crisis is recognising what the crisis is. If it is a big meteor, if it is a tsunami, you identify it and search through your well rehearsed plans, just as we're seeing in Germany. The Germans are so public spirited they will soon be helping out the rest of Europe as they get their own society working again. They remind me of the "fit your own mask before then fitting your child", advice on the plane.

I'm pro Europe and I'm hoping our Brexit stance wont stop the Germans helping us, although they'll probably push at easier doors. In a crisis people who want to help just need to be shown which tools to pick up or supply, they dont need a sit down meeting to discuss it.

Its clearly going to be trying times but the easiest way is to start at the end and work back. A lot of people make the mistake of taking 4 steps until they find they've just headed down a cul-de-sac.

In Education we want the educators to have educated the population needing it. From nursery to university. Quite simply the measuring systems of exams are up for examination. Continuous assessment started a long time ago and nowadays most employers want to know that a certificate of education means that the person is educated.

So when pupils and schools worry about this years highers and whether they'll get results that get them into University, while the clearing system tries to work out what to do, just say, "Hoi! stop ra bus, draw breath, save lives and what's the worst that might happen, you have a gap year, we use prelims or personal recommendation, statements and interviews." We've boxed ourselves in because we've undermined trust in our schooling system, turning them into exam factories, while our universities have slowly been turned into business selling degrees.

Covid-19 offers us the chance to give education back to the educators, the committed frontline people who want to teach and will be far better at doing it when we get behind them and support their efforts. Like many of the front line staff, who help people in our society, they are drawn to help because of their commitment to the cause, its certainly not the cash. So we need to find a way to help them help us. Here's an idea, teachers, please talk amongst yourselves and propose a plan.

Dont sit down with politicians, just put the plan together and tell the politicians, this is the plan. If it involves friday is home schooling day, if it says a national plan is to let every school decide locally, whatever it says, its your future and its our future, I've always found you'll know more than any politician. Politicians on the other hand hate coming up with a plan and its always given over to someone else to draw it up, so thats why you tell them just as the NHS is trying to do at the moment. Along with the Care workers, police, postal workers, firemen, and all the key staff.

With so few actually being exposed to Covid 19 during lockdown the sad fact is that it is the Care workers who are being left naked, but also being the unwitting carriers of the virus. The only people who are not allowed to Social Distance are those in the care community, NHS  & Care Workers. The Care workers are being put in an impossible position as they travel from house to house or home to home, doing shifts often on minimum wage and zero hours contracts. They cant be shielded by being furloughed as they're needed to work. Once the virus is gone in 14 months time many will be sent to a detention centre to be repatriated by a home office ticking boxes. It'll be disgusting and it needs to be sorted now.

Whats frightening is that they are part of the controlled explosion of this biological bomb. Their job of care also involves slowly spreading the virus among the care community. They cant take 2 weeks off to self isolate if they feel symptoms coming on. Their bosses aren't always as keen about care as they are about costs and contract fulfilment. Unscrupulous care homes are routine reality shows as they are cheap to make and fairly plentiful. They exist, they're disgusting and they turn the stomach. This government far from shielding old people is quite simply complicit in an act of genocide. That might seem quite a bold statement but I believe it is true and the word I'd use applies to us all, we are all complicit. Its not just in the UK, in Spain, in the States, stories of care homes and bodies abandoned or hidden in makeshift morgues are only the surface. Throughout the world old people will have been quietly culled like cattle during foot and mouth.

I have asked myself many times about working in a care home after the first patient dies with a high temperature, coughing and other covid symptoms. Would I get man flu and not turn up for work or would I offer to do double shifts. IF I got ill doing double shifts would I cry off and sensibly self isolate or soldier on. If I was "stepping up to the plate" if that's my psyche, then I'd work through man flu considering it essential to help. Its an insidious position for the staff to be put in when they know and love the residents they care for.

Death rates from Covid-19 will never be accurately reported as in death, there is overlap. I'd like to see stats where people were alive if covid-19 hadn't appeared, not stats that say, covid 19 may have been the trigger but it was blah blah blah as when people tragically die there is often a multiple of ailments.

I know little about the regulation, the Care Inspectorate and control of care homes, I only know that having visited a few for my Mum 4 years ago, I saw that there was a different level of care. I didn't think there were homes that looked awful but I did see homes that were filled with people living their lives with carers who knew their residents and cared for their needs. A simple pre-requisite one would think but its also a very easy way to make money so its no suprise that many gangsters operate care homes. We chose a home for my Mum that was superb for her for 3 years. Care homes can be fantastic but we need to recognise the range of homes out there and the relative lack of regulation. Does anyone have a job to ensure all staff are checked healthy to work, or is the zero hours a clue as to whether or not you're obliged to work ill or not. Hmmm, let me think.

So, yes, the government are in complicit unless there's a procedure at every care home to at the bare minimum, for all staff to have their temperature taken. We've watched so many pictures involving people being tested coming out of tube stations etc.

This leads naturally into music festivals or football matches. Turning it on its head should we try and work out what is good about large crowds? I figure there's loads of opportunity to test people, like getting onto tubes or buses, surely we can take people's temperature and screen them. Crowd control is one of our strengths in the UK. We love a queue. Obviously those with a high temperature are in for a test, but that's where we hit our first cul-de-sac moment, we dont have these tests! We are looking at this rolling for 8 months.

So lets start at the end and work our way back. For Football that means we are writing off 2020/21 season and should just about be able to finis this season. European football is governed by UEFA and they are in crowd cuckoo land. Normally you'd say cloud cuckoo land but I couldn't resist it. They have television contracts and their raison-d'etre is to make money, protect the powerful brand at any cost, and that includes the tragic residents of Bergamo, who make me well up every time I think about how decimated their city has been  through the virus, caused by one UEFA Champions league football match. Will we ever know what Cheltenham did for our country?

If we start at the end we need clarify whether the Euro's should just be abandoned or whether the leagues use June 2021. To do this we need to work out as a society what role entertainment to play going forward. This is from live music, theatre and sport to the cinematic versions watched in your home.

I cant describe the joy I felt in catching up with Patrik Fitzgerald and the 1980 documentary. There's so much content out there, and the technology directs you to it. Will we look back with hindsight and say that 2020 was when we finally saw the technology vision. I dont know but there is a time in the future when historians will say thats the date when homo sapien handed over the keys to society, or will it be the time when society staged a quiet revolution. Considering how badly the failed democracies of the UK and USA have done in choosing their leaders lately it seems technology has already taken over.

Anxiety levels in the UK have risen with social media often cited as the reason. The level of pressure to keep up means that the lack of hours in each day lead to collapse. So here's the deal, this period of lockdown has given many people the time to catch up and see 'keeping up' for what it is. People like me who take two days to write a wee blog post like this have no chance of competing in that dynamic high paced world, but enough, back to the entertainment industry.

As a Hibs supporter, who goes to the odd gig or play what is the end game, and what revolution will unfold.

I'll finish this later but we have to carry the spirit of past calamities into making our world better for the experience.

If the players cant take the stage to entertain then perhaps we need to find a new stage or take the whole thing on tour.

Get the teachers to ask the football clubs, the pop bands the RSC what they want to engage their school and university populations. They cant fill stadiums but perhaps we could have a marathon run at social distancing, perhaps we have everyone playing a tune as we set a world record for the longest marching band.

Hi Leanne Dempster, how about we try a midsummer social distancing performance of Sunshine on Leith, with everyone playing whatever instrument they want, accordion players every 20 people, singers every second person. Logistically a nightmare, but what a community spirit!

Sunday 19 April 2020

Grubby Stories - March 1979 Patrik Fitzgerald

Like Lou Reed's "Growing up in Public" I never got sent a promo of Patrik's LP but my brother did buy one so I got to listen to it, especially when he went out.

Just as I said Lou in 1980 defined my life, Patrik did in 1979.

I didn't need a safety pin in my heart but I loved the song. I love little fishes swimming in a rising tide. I totally got "Ugly as You", I really didnt want to grow up that UGLY! I wanted my folks to have another 10 people living in our house and ironically, 40 years on, even less people live in it. Where I thought it was disgusting that people had spare rooms or sofas while there were homeless people on the streets, nowadays, we have spare flats, second and third homes and there's homeless villages created every time a motorway creates an underpass..

But I digress, this is about the poet Patrik. He inspired me to write short songs, sometimes really short. "why did our dreams fall oh so flat, all of the life we showed in those early days" is a straight rip off from Patrik. "All the years of trying" is also the title to a very good documentary on Patrik. He write that song pretty early on, having already worked out that the business was indeed a business. IT was not about art, it was about selling art, and the sales force would determine what art sold. Marketing was everything, and they wanted the public only to have a couple of winners.

I know how many people saw the Clash at La Sorbonne, in Edinburgh, the night they didnt get to play, I was there. The whole of Edinburgh saw them busking outside the St James' centre, but I wasn't there!

I was there at Holyrood on stage in the drama theatre while Mike played guitar and I sang, or should I say barfed out in an Edinburgh twang, "When I get famous" another classic Patrik song.

"Little Fishes" still just bite me on the feet. Its a bonding song as we'd say nowadays. We're all in this together, you and me, we're like, little fishes in a rising tide, small fry!

So much comedy, tragedy and delivered with frank authority, pathos and fuck you its great.

Those of you suffering withdrawal from football can comfort yourself in "No fun Football" anymore!

Groubby Stories doesn't waste your time so if there is a track you dont appreicate, dont worry, it'' be gone and the next is on its way.

I sang Suicidal Wreck for many years until my girlfriend talked to me about her brother Alan committing suicide at 24. I shut up and never had that thought again. It was a great song but all I remember now is "I'm a suicidal wreck, self destruct in my head, I'm in pain, why cant they see, they're not the ones, who feel, the pain, in my brain...." or at least that's how i remember Fionna Norris' lyrics.

Before "People who died" was written, Patrik wrote "all my friends are dead now", a precursor to many a rap and clearly influencing songs like "down in the tube station" and countless other songs like Jim Carroll's. Its really hard and brutal. Knife crime was all the rage in the 70's too, it was also very brutal and sad. Hopefully if theres one thing the virus has helped is keeping knives in their drawers.

To me, Patrik's style wasn't really to over complicate the lyrics. There it is pal, take it or leave it. I took it big style and here I am 40+ years on reliving it. I never got to review Patrik in Deadbeat, but I have now, job done, that's what Fanzines are for, talking up the good stuff.


Saturday 4 April 2020

Tomorrow's chip paper?

People used to think the newspaper was tomorrow's chip paper while other thought it was the first draft of history. 

As the 21st century arrived neither has much traction. Chippies have declined and the fall in circulation of newspapers has ensured the ambition of journalism declined, with it the likelihood of its claim to history.

With covid-19 we have seen a resurgence in journalism as papers hungry for stories have asked their journalists to write some. For many in the trade this must be a joy. 

"Just give me copy!" 

The papers are now full of stories that nobody else is covering because the journalists are just writing copy. With the decline in fast food outlets being open many of these articles are becoming the first draft of history again and don't need to fret about becoming insulation for a black pudding supper.

The 21st century brought blogger after blogger, with their self appointment as experts, our culture has changed. When Caprice advises the chief medical officer on covid-19, and people listen to her, we know it's gone too far.

I can't remember if it was Joey Essex or Jade Goodie who had trouble spelling coronovirus But it does worry me that our society has been so easily divided by technology, or it's applications.

In our day we listened to Joe Strummer, Annie Lennox, Roddy Frame, Tracey Thorn or earlier eras had their maestros and the cult of celebrity has long been with us, but we could draw a line and think for ourselves.

The daily bombarding via social media means the current generation are recipients to the populist voice. The current round of what's app videos would keep most people busy all day, time they should be spending trying to retreat from the social media barricades and recover some perspective.

I of course write this shite, in the firm believer that I will not promote it so nobody will actually read it.

Self fulfilling and q big pay on the back from me, ha ha, enjoy!