Wednesday 17 September 2014

Independence - YES or NO - its not just the end of British Summer Time

As the might of the westminster machine rolled into Scotland, eluding Alex Salmond's well positioned Panzer divisions it was clear that Vinny would go walkabout, and he did.

Alicante, then up to Barcelona where I had many discussions with the Spanish and Catalonians about our referendum. In homage to Catalonia George Orwell gave a simple account of the civil war 1936-39 and although I didnt re-read it, there are many themes that run through from 80 years ago. British Summer Time was not among them.



A guy in a rickshaw wearing a darth vader costume while shouting "bow down to your imperial masters, they've come a long way to Glasgow today" over the Sky wars soundtrack has probably been up the top of my top 10 comedic moments. There's been loads.

Cameron telling Salmond he can have his after school clubs already, while his researcher is shouting in his ear piece, yes but he wants the tax revenues from letting parents go back to work earlier to pay for it, YA DAFTY!

Salmond meantime meanders around a number of points as nimbly as I did at my wedding. Sore feet all round and a noticeably large number of women switched off by him. Given that the other side are shagging their way through Westminster, allegedly, it comes as no surprise that not being a womaniser loses votes. Its one of those oxymorons, although it is easy, to comprehend. If he had the charm, he would get the women out voting and he probably would be a shagger. Look at Hollande in France, although, he has taken it a bit too far and now looks like every woman in France is an ex. Salmond doesnt exude that charm, he's no Bill Clinton. He's a wee dumpy guy who went to St Andrews, backs a few horses, cracks bad jokes and probably enjoys the odd light ale. Sounds like me, definitely nae time for shaggin.

So what are the vote winners, what are the things that are getting us out of bed to vote, well except me as I posted mine before my travels.

When I reached Narbonne in France, we discussed the auld alliance, and whether the French would welcome us into the Euroland. "Mais oui, vous avez beaucoup d'argent, huille, whiskey, en France il'y'a rien". Well that's the euro and economic argument put to bed then. It seems we get into Europe as net contributors and part of the energy security, we also disprove the theory that we cant be a profitable nation. As well as education and tourism, computer games and golf we can also export some of our other things like oil and whiskey which may help the fledgling economy and if we dont get to keep the pound they'll throw the euro at us making it even easier to get tourists.

The big questions for the floating voter though are will it make much difference. How much control over our revenues do we need in order to max out on the economy. Let's face it, Clinton always said, its the economy stupid. This is the whole deal. The main and only argument those discussing YES & NO need to have.

Voting YES means that there will be a transitional phase and we will all be worse off initially, except the constitutional lawyers and accountancy firms employed to negotiate the separation. There is plenty reason to fear the size of the divorce bill as there is not going to be lot of love in this room after a YES vote. The ends will justify the means when 35 years down the road in 2049 we are looking at a successful development of the work that was started since the split.

At present we look back on the years since 1979 and are somewhat bewildered. All our tory MPs have left to get constituencies in safe seats down south. I wasnt a big fan of them and laughed when they left then and in 1983, but the real loser was democracy. These guys were parachuted in just as people from down south came further north to find a safe Labour seat. If representative democracy is to work, then civic volunteer, councillor to MP is surely the route we want most people to take. Let's face it, the civil service guide the hand anyway.

The measure as I say will be in 2049. Its 35 years ATE (after thatcher election) so 35 AYE (after YES eventually) that we can look each other in the eye and say we've migrated to a model closer to the Swedish one. Higher taxes, full employment, after school clubs.

Many voting NO will be saying, exactly. I dont want that. Its clear if Scotland on its own votes for a government it will be left leaning, like left used to be not Tony's Troskyite version.

Education education education was his mantra. We didnt realise it was the old school bully nonsense of I'll show him....I digress, we discuss the future not the past.

On balance I am pro-democracy, which meant I became a YES voter. There is no line that is a vote winner for me, on either side. It is a massive vote of faith.

In 1979 & 1997 there was a massive vote of faith and it was misplaced. One spent all our money on creating high and sustainable unemployment (for those wondering why Norway has a huge oil fund of £800bn and we have a £1trillion deficit ask Sherlock how much it cost per annum to keep 3 million unemployed never mind how could it grow if it could've been invested). 1997 is best left alone, its still too raw but the emphasis is on democracy.

2014 and another vote of faith. Keep with the union, leave home and start afresh. I think if we split up, we'll be closer together in the future, if we stay together we will disintegrate. I think our democracy on these islands will improve as we show the way forward. Scotland has taken the lead in the past and not just with the poll tax.

Its a lot of dough to get rid of trident, and will we have politicians who keep their noses from the trough. There are lots of places where we would choose to invest if we had control over the revenues. Its not just about providing free this and that. It is about investing in infrastructure industries. We led the way with the turbines but the Danes got the job manufacturing as we were so busy closing all our steel mills. Check the Proclaimers letter to America if you dont believe me! Will we choose to do that or will we acquire a taste for fine port?

Can we make whisky cheaper and therefore stimulate investment by the distilleries in the independent Scotland instead of Japan?

Nobody knows. Its a leap of faith that business leaders will continue to see that Edinburgh is the number 2 financial centre currently and in the top 10 in Europe. Will that change? Its up to them but the talent will not leave Edinburgh unilaterally. What makes these financial institutions migrate to Edinburgh and Glasgow is the pool of staff. For every Standard Life that makes noises about leaving there are Blackrocks, JP Morgans and the rest who view the cost and quality of the staff, its geographical positioning between Asian and North American markets as being pivotal.

Can Salmond and the successors in this new democracy fuck it up? Of course they can. They've been educated the same way as the screw balls I mentioned earlier did so for the whole of the UK, but with any luck our democracy will be more robust. Who knows, but we'll find out some answers soon and others we may not even find out at all.

Good luck whichever way you vote, we'll still be in the pub Friday night.

No comments:

Post a Comment